Covid-19 case rate in England was 81 per 100,000 in the week ending 28th February 2021. This was less than 15% of the rates being experienced in early January and is broadly in line with those of late September - though falling instead of rising.
In the first few weeks of Lockdown 3, which started on 5th Jan, over 70s accounted for between 10.0% and 10.5% of all cases. This was the first group to be vaccinated en masse, with the majority of doses given by mid-February. Allowing three weeks for the vaccination to take effect, it would be hoped that a reduction in Over 70s share could be detected in early February and would become more noticeable in March.
There is evidence that this is indeed occurring. Share has fallen in the last 3 weeks and was only 7.6% in week ending 28th Feb.
This is still higher than the share achieved in September and early October, but that reflects the high incidence of Covid-19 in students during those weeks.
It is of course possible that this trend is not all attributable to vaccination! The lockdown has impacted behaviour and mixing, with a likely reduction in the level of contact of over 70s. But over the next couple of weeks it is to be hoped that Over 70s account for a continuing fall in the share of Covid-19 cases.
The UK Vaccination programme has continued at pace, with many people aged 50-69 having received their jabs. This should reduce incidence of Covid-19 in those age groups too, so the observed trend in the over-70s may not be so apparent.